Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress (Comedy) — Is Jean Smart Set for Another Statue for ‘Hacks?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Commentary (Updated April 3, 2025): A mix of returning champions, rising stars, and genre-bending newcomers occupy the lead comedy actress race.

Again, Jean Smart leads the pack, who could potentially earn her seventh Emmy overall, and fourth for her role as Las Vegas stand-up diva Deborah Vance in HBO/Max’s fourth season of “Hacks,” which drops on April 10. Smart’s performance has already secured her back-to-back wins in 2021 and 2022 (the show did not air during the 2023 eligibility period), and then came back one more time last year with her sharp-tongued, nuanced portrayal, which continues to evolve in surprising and poignant ways.

Hot on her heels is 2023’s winner, Quinta Brunson, who continues to shine in ABC’s “Abbott Elementary.” Brunson made history in 2022 by becoming the first Black woman in over 40 years to win for lead comedy actress, and remains a formidable contender with another strong season filled with heartfelt humor and biting commentary on public education.

Kristen Bell is receiving some of the best reviews of her career in Netflix’s comedy “Nobody Wants This,” where she plays a sex and dating podcaster, with sharp comedic timing and vulnerability. Though Bell is no stranger to genre television, this role could mark her first significant awards breakthrough.

Also in the top tier of contenders is Ayo Edebiri, who is riding high on her Emmy and Golden Globe wins in the supporting category for “The Bear.” Now considered a co-lead in the FX series’ second season, she was the only loss in the acting categories last year. Edebiri’s turn as Sydney Adamu hopes to come back with a vengeance. Still, the third season’s reviews were muted than previously. If she’s a highlight of the fourth season, which will air during Emmy voting, that could help her run.

Natasha Lyonne returns to the race with her offbeat work in Peacock’s “Poker Face,” the genre-blending mystery-comedy created by Rian Johnson. Previously nominated for “Russian Doll,” Lyonne brings a classic Columbo-style charisma to her role as human lie detector Charlie Cale, capturing the attention of Emmy voters with the series’ unique tone and sharp writing. As she is a nominee for the first season, there’s no reason to believe she won’t return.

Similar to Lyonne in terms of genre and the role, Uzo Aduba could return to the category for her role in Netflix’s “The Residence,” where she plays Cordelia Cupp, a consultant with the Metropolitan Police Department, in a political series with a satirical edge.

Also in the conversation is Kathryn Hahn, who leads Marvel’s first comedy series, “Agatha All Along,” delivering a performance that mixes magic with middle-aged malaise.

And then we’ll have Emmy stalwarts to consider such as Tina Fey in the upcoming show “The Four Seasons,” Bridget Everett for the final season of “Somebody Somewhere” and Selena Gomez who nabbed her first acting Emmy nom last year for “Only Murders in the Building” and made history as the most nominated Latina producer.

Keep a close eye on the race and the number of submissions, which may fall below the required 80 to have six nominees, making the race even tighter.

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)